Post-Crime NYC
January 17, 2008
The other day, I'd been reminded about some of the most striking statistics I'd seen last year, which were from the NYPD crime stats for 9th Precinct, where I live. (That link is to a PDF with stats for last week.) Each precinct in the city files reports every week, and those reports also include comparisons of statistics for prior years.
But what's amazing is the trends in violent crime shown over the past 20 years. CompStat reports show the numbers from 1990 until 2006, and over that time, rapes are down 70% from 41 to 12. Burglaries are down 85%, from 1420 to 209. And murders? There weren't any. In my neighborhood, people don't kill each other. In 1990, they did, 23 times. Robberies over the same timeframe are down 81%, and felony assaults are down 69%. And all of this in a neighborhood where, just a year before they started tracking these stats, we had a police-incited riot that divided the entire neighborhood. Today, there's a dog run and a kids' playground just steps from where the riot began.
Now, of course, that's no consolation to the people who've still suffered from the crimes that do go on, and of course it doesn't account for other precincts where crime is worse. But the fundamental character of what it means to live here is so incredibly different from the perception that so many outsiders have of what it means to live in New York City. You will always have some violent crime -- an overwhelming majority of the personal violence that does happen could fall under the description of crimes of passion, people beating up their romantic rivals or things like that. But the day-to-day threat of random street violence is measurably, fundamentally reduced. Along with the massive improvements made to so many parks across all five boroughs, we are truly in a golden age for public space in New York. These numbers represent just one part of that, but it's an important part.
More from the New York Daily News, and detailed city-wide crime reports going back to 1960 are available here. Choire is also blogging about many of the same topics in his guest posts on kottke.org today.
12:57 PM
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Thanks, Anil. My wife and I are coming to NYC this weekend and that's comforting. :)
Seriously, though. I haven't been to New York for 35 years (I was very very young) and my dad still worries about us getting mugged. Hopefully, statistics are on our side.
I've heard that a lot of the decrease in crime can be attributable to unleaded gasoline. I haven't looked too much into the topic, but it seems like a plausible theory.
Here's an easy to read description of the theory:
http://www.damninteresting.com/?p=932
You know what you've done now, right?
YOU'VE JINXED IT :)
Here's an article by Malcolm Gladwell in which he discusses the drop in crime, his theory (epidemiology) and Freakonomics theory (abortions and imprisonment):
I’m an Aussie and I had exactly the same misconception before visiting NYC for the first in Dec 2006. I was so pleasantly surprised I blogged about it at the time: http://blog.craigbailey.net/2006/12/travel-new-york-is-safe.html
Proud and delighted TypePad blogger here! :O)
And, also a native New Yorker currently living in New Jersey.
It took quite a time to root out the nasty ghosts exemplified by the Odd Couple episode where Oscar writes a negative article about New York City with cracks such as: "A funny thing happened on my way across Central Park today...I made it across!"
I love it so much and visit New York whenever I get the chance (Hackensack is literally 20 minutes away, anyway, so I did not go far). It is a giddy, joyous feeling that washed over me when I am in NYC.
The optimism that came with the late 1990s brought all the safety, prosperity, popular-geekdom, and creativity of our age into a singularity that has not since significantly waned. True, people now think we are heading in the wrong direction, and are on the brink of a depression, etc., but that eternal, irrepressible optimism, paradoxically, has endured through it all.
And, with good reason, imho, for I believe that we are on the event horizon of a golden age that will spring from this already golden age.
By the way, Mr. Dash:
How old are you?
We are looking for Antiaging Wunderkind III, and you are quite qualified in every way, and I strongly suspect that you are much older than you look. :O)